Real estate industry of our country market trend expectation

——Vanke as an example

Real estate is the leading industry of the national economy in China , in the modern social economic life plays a vital role . After years of development , Chinese real estate industry is in into a large-scale,the brand , the scale of the operation period of transition , the growth mode of real estate is speed to pay attention to the scale of lay particular stress on benefit and market segmentation transformation from depend mainly on government regulation to rely on market and the regulation of the change in the pattern of the enterprise itself.

I China's real estate management and development

In 2006 , China promulgated by the standing committee of the "the six countries" including housing structure , tax , credit , land , cheap rent and economy applicable room construction to promote the healthy development of the real estate . In March 2007 to August , the China central six time in a row improve benchmark lending rate , for 13 times raise deposit reserve rate , six time in a row of accumulation fund loan interest rate increase . To government continues to use credit policy and tax policy to curb the rise in house price , but the government control of the price of the house underpowered.

In 2007 , the U.S. Subprime mortgage crisis triggered global financial tsunami , at the same time for China's economic policy was also has had considerable influence . But the U.S.credit crisis to China's real estate market's influence is not single again , in a short housing prices fall , September 2008 to October , the central bank has two cut benchmark lending rate and housing accumulation fund loan interest rate,make tighten policy began to loose . So in early 2009 , with such a spectacle:When the American real estate prices fall in expanding , and China's real estate but there was up against.

In order to alleviate warms up again house prices , the government put more attention to turn to the housing structure . The ministry of construction in 2009 in the construction of low-rent housing all spent money into as high as 33 billion . The ministry of land and resources announced the 2010 years for the housing plan, plan to housing land supply amount more than 130% year-on-year growth . In a 2011 article" eight countries" , the cental government again increased security room construction force, improve the construction target to 10 million sets.

II China's real estate market of the specific trends

1. Policy:Central adhere regulation does not shake,reasonable requirement

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The first quarter of 2012,to further consolidate control achievements , promote house price reasonable regression , the central government has repeatedly stressed the insist on real estate regulation not be moved . be restricted to buy policy implementation . Relevant departments have said strict enforcement measures attitude to continue . On the other hand , in specific policy implementation , control policies "have keep pressure" , continue to slow down investment demand speculation at the same time , also proposed to the autonomy of demand protection , continue to carry out the law disseminating credit policies to support the loan demand first suite.

2. Bridal chamber:the national investment growth continue to start back

Nationally , Jan to Feb 2012 , investment in real estate development and start new growth of 27.8% and 5.1% , respectively,continue to grow faster fall back . From 20 key cities , the total turnover of the first quarter fell 16 percent, the lowest in recent years over the same period , the third-tier cities the largest decline , the most prominent efforts to rebound in the second-tier cities . Price since September 2011, 100-city price index chain for seven months down , decline to the highest level in February , the decline in February , unchanged from March , a drop of stabilization; sub-urban point of view , the price adjustment by the first-tier cities transferred to the second and third line; price reduction projects with small and medium-sized room prices by the expansion of the Liberal brand Housing prices, the spread of suburbs inside the city, diversification of promotional tools.

Figure 1:real estate and residential development has accumulated year-on-year growth and investment

Data sources:CREIS middle finger data,fdc.soufun.com

Development investment growth continues to fall,but the house is greater than the whole by real estate, growth has been lower than the average level in nearly five years (about 25%)

3. Land:price volume continue to drop , premium rates have fallen to historic minimum , clinch a deal price of mainstream,sell one's own things by expanding.

2012 quarter , land market continues to slump , floor all valence to continue down , premium rates reached a new low,the country's 300 city housing land appearance all valence 12.2% year-on-year drop , premium rates fell to the lowest in the past two years , only 2.5%,clinch a deal the price of the mainstream. Supply and demand , various types of land to be released and trading volume over the same period last year dropped significantly , volume fell more than the supply chain, various types of land in residential land fell most significant . Land transfer continue to decline , and the year-on-year decline from the previous quarter to further expand the decline of residential land is the same as the highest.

Figure 2:since 2007 the national residential land price before the floor price and average premium rate

Data sources:CREIS middle finger data,fdc.soufun.com

4. Enterprise:increase sales promotion efforts,reduce to take spending,brand enterprise performance is lower r than the same period last year room,but slightly better than the overall market.

III China Vanke CO.,LTD analysis

1. Trend of the stock situation

Nearly five days the latest trend:

05-22 on Tuesday the latest price:9.01 volume:4578(hand) turnover:412.45(ten thousand yuan) average:8.89

Data sources:http://www.eastmoney.com/

Important financial index

Table 1 in 2007-2011,Vanke key financial index

Market performance

Notes:stocks listed full after three months ,will be debited to the performance of the markets

2. The reasons caused the trend

Insist on small family and decorating room , pay great attention to the cooperation , robust investment strategy,promote housing industrialization and green building . Just need to face,product structure mainstream agree with market demand . In 2011, China Vanke sales area of 10.753 million square meters,sales of 121.54 billion yuan , up by 119.8% and 12.4% respectively compared.

"Would rather not to miss , take the wrong"will still be with the principle of Vanke too , to avoid the land price is more expensive , the competition is fierce market .On the other hand, the strategic depth to develop their business, can obtain the project stationed in the city, region rich hierarchy of first, second and third tier cities have a wide range of part of the city's land market fever situation, and other city business to balance .

As regards business accounts for no more than 20%than , as the aging of the current social trends and leisure vacation to increased demand , living demand is also showing the state of the market segmentation , health endowment type of property and resorts property is also an important direction of Vanke aim.

3. The future trend projection

Sales in the first quarter 2012 , Vanke sales down,sales 10% year-on-year drop , to this , China Vanke enterprise will adjust sales strategy , depreciate sales promotion efforts continue to widen,means more varied.

Give land,China Vanke give land still cautions attitude,continue to take to spending less.

Capital funding , only deposits and advance receipts a year-on-year decline , self-financing accounted continue to improve.

Profit

IV China's real estate industry trend analysis

1．The real estate market matures

From the current real estate investment and housing markets performance analysis , China's real estate industry is still on the rise stage,but from the market performance to see, the housing market is in an immature to mature setting, in the next few years, the marker will eventually return to reason . In addition, from the economic strength and purchasing power of urban residents, as long as the national economy maintained steady growth, the property does not appear the case of severe shortage, then the property market will never crash. Moreover, through the national policy adjustments on the real estate industry, and guide the real estate into a mature and rational development of the market will continue to mature.

2．Upstream and downstream industry integration

As China's economic strength unceasingly expands,the rapid development of science and technology power , real estate enterprise is no longer the whole industry chain a simple node, but have taken their key technology and core competitiveness, the enterprise of the industry layout to complete industry chain upstream and downstream direction expansion.

3．House price appreciation is stable

House price and the development of the national economy than the relationship was positively, so long as our country steady economic growth , government macro-control proper , housing price won't appear too big wave motion . The limited land resources is the house price rising incentives , and chased period of the land price increases , drive the rise in house prices situation . On the one hand , the developer in order to improve the grade of real estate, build brand, will lead to rising house prices; the other hand, with the national economic development and the improvement of people's income, the demand for housing, more and more strong, but in the market as well as national policy under the control of growth of prices, the increasingly stable .

V Last words

The real estate industry is to influence the people's livelihood pilar industry. Real estate is a third financial, a third are policy,a third are real estate properties.As a real estate enterprise to respond to countries called for , strictly abide by the policy sets, and constantly understanding and learning of national macro policies ,and carefully evaluated enterprise development dynamic,grasping the opportunity and progress , make our country for the healthy development of real estate industry harmonious.

References

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[7] http://stock.eastmoney.com，Oriental wealth network

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[10] http://www.docin.com/p-219275187.html，In recent years, China's real estate macro control policy analysis