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时间：2023-10-10 15:34:57 下载该word文档

U.S.vsChina：WhoWouldWinaCurrencyWar？TimGeithnercouldrevealtodaywhetherornothisTreasuryDepartmentwillformallylabelChinaa“currencymanipulator.”ThereismountingpoliticalpressurefortheU.S.totakestrongeractionagainstChina'scurrencypolicy.Beingperceivedas“soft”onChinawon'thelptheDemocratsinupcomingNovemberelections.AndarecordU.S.tradedeficitwithChinainAugustwillshineanevenbrighterspotlightonBeijing'srefusaltoallowtheyuantoappreciate.However,formallylabelingChinaa“manipulator”wouldnotachieveverymuch,inmyopinion.SuchastepwouldnotonlyfurthersouralreadystrainedWashington-Beijingrelations,butalsodolittletowardsconvincingBeijingtobecomemoreflexiblewiththeyuan.And,moreimportantly,thefactisthatChinaandtheU.S.areheadingtowardsakindofcurrencywaranyway,duetotheupcomingcourseofU.S.economicpolicy.IsthisawartheU.S.canwin?Thecoming“war”willbeanoutgrowthofchangesinFederalReservepolicy.ThereiswidespreadconsensusthattheFedwillundertakeanewroundof“quantitativeeasing,”nicknamedQE2,inwhichtheFedwillbuyupTreasurybillstofloodtheeconomywithevenmoreliquidity.Thegoalistopreventdeflationandboostthesaggingrecoverybypushingbankstolendandcompaniestoinvestandhire.ButthereisasideeffectthatdirectlyimpactsChina'syuanpolicy.Byincreasingtheamountofdollarsavailableintheworld,theFedwoulddepressthevalueofthedollar.MereanticipationoftheFed'snewstrategyhasalreadyweakenedthedollaronworldmarkets.That,inturn,placesmorestrainontheyuan,makingBeijingworkextrahardtostoptheyuanfromappreciatingagainstthedollar.Inotherwords,there'ssomethingofacontestofwillscomingup–cantheU.S.floodtheworldwithenoughdollarstoforceChinatoloosenitsgripontheyuan?MartinWolfofTheFinancialTimes,inanextremelysmartanalysisofthepotentialimpactoftheFed'sprobablepolicy,saysyes.BecausetheU.S.cancreateasmanydollarsasitwishes,Wolfargues,theU.S.canforcetherestoftheworldtoadjusttoitsownpolicies,notviceversa.Here'showheexplainedit:Toputitcrudely,theUSwantstoinflatetherestoftheworld,whilethelatteristryingtodeflatetheUS.TheUSmustwin,sinceithasinfiniteammunition:thereisnolimittothedollarstheFederalReservecancreate.Whatneedstobediscussedisthetermsoftheworld'ssurrender:theneededchangesinnominalexchangeratesanddomesticpoliciesaroundtheworld…ChinaobjectstothehugeUSfiscaldeficitsandunconventionalmonetarypolicies.Chinaisalsodeterminedtokeepinflationdownathomeandlimittheappreciationofitscurrency.Theimplicationofthispolicyisclear:adjustmentsinrealexchangeratesshouldoccurviafallingUSdomesticprices.ChinawantstoimposeadeflationaryadjustmentontheUS,justasGermanyisdoingtoGreece.Thisisnotgoingtohappen.Ofcourse,noteveryoneagreesthattheU.S.canbesuccessful.YipingHuang,aneconomistatPekingUniversity,wroteinTheWallStreetJournalthatChina'scapitalcontrolswouldallowittoresisttheFed'sefforts:
U.S.unilateralmonetaryinterventionisunlikelytoworkeither.TheU.S.can'tselldollarstooffsetChina'sinterventioninforeign-exchangemarketsbecauseChinahascapital-accountcontrols,anditwouldbeimpossibletosourceenoughyuan.WhetherFedmonetaryeasingwillpressChinatoreleasetheyuanornot,I'mnotafanofthethinkingthattheU.S.,byusing(orshouldwesay,abusingtheglobalpositionoftheU.S.dollarcanorshouldimposeitswillontheworldeconomyforitsowngood.ThatmindsetisexactlywhatangersAmericansaboutChina'sresistanceontheyuan.Furthermore,Fedpolicywouldimpactjustabouteveryeconomyintheworld,inmostcasesmuchmorethanChina's.Especiallyvulnerablewillbeemergingmarketsthathavegenerallyplayedbytherules–thosewithrelativelyfreecurrenciesandopenborderstocapitalflows.TheseeconomieswilllikelyseeaninfluxofnewFed-createddollars,duetotheirstronggrowthprospectsorhigherinterestrates,pushingupthevalueoftheircurrencies(andpossiblyfeedingotherills,likeassetbubbles.Thatwillforcepolicymakersthroughouttheemergingworldtoreact,increasingthelikelihoodthattheywillstepintocontrolthevalueoftheirowncurrencies.Inotherwords,Fedpolicycouldintensifyaworldwidecurrencywar.Thebattleovercurrenciesisalreadyintensifying.JapanandSouthKoreahavebeenbickeringthisweekovercommentsbyJapaneseofficialscriticizingSeoul'spolicyofinterveningincurrencymarketstorestrainthepaceofappreciationofthewon.JapanesePrimeMinisterNaotoKanbunchedChinaandSouthKoreatogether,sayingbothneededtofollow“responsibleactionswithincommonrules”ontheircurrencypolicies.Kan'scommentfallsintothepeople-in-glass-housescategory,sinceJapanhastakenstepstostoptheyen'sriseaswellandisthreateningfurtheraction.OnTuesday,Thailandactedtocontroltheappreciationofthebaht,inpartbyreinstatingataxonforeigninvestmentinThaigovernmentbonds.AsWolfrightlypointsout,allofthesemovesandcountermovesindifferentcountriesinregardtotheircurrenciesarepartofagrandereffort–topushthenecessaryeconomicadjustmentsneededtorestorehealthygrowthontoothers.Thosecountrieswithcurrentaccountsurpluses(China,Japanwanttodelaythereformsneededintheirdomesticeconomiestobecomelessdependentonexportsandstimulatedomesticdemand.TheU.S.andotherdeficitnationswanttoexporttheirwayoutoftroubleratherthanadjustingpricesandconsumptionathome.Buttheseattemptstohoistresponsibilityontootherswon'tresolvethegiantimbalancesthatunderpinnedtheGreatRecessionorrestoretheworldeconomytostablegrowth.What'sneededisagrandinternationalagreementaimedatworkingouttheimbalancesinacooperativemannerthanallowseveryonetimetoadapttotheneweconomicrealities.TheupcomingG20summitinSeoulinNovemberisjusttheforumtoforgesuchanagreement,anditalreadyhasdoneso,butonlyinprinciple.Whatweneedisareal,workingarrangement.Buttheincreasinglycontentiousstateofaffairsinglobaleconomicrelationsisnotlikelytoproducesuchaconsensusanytimesoon.Sothetitleofthispostisactuallyatrickquestion.Whowillwinacurrencywar?Thecorrectansweris:Nobody.

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